despite losing four congressmen last night here (five if you count jim turner, who didn't run for re-election), texas democrats gained ground in the state house and pulled off a historical victory in a race in dallas county by electing a gay hispanic woman to the position of county sheriff.

democrats had a net gain of one seat in the state house, narrowing the gap to 87-63 (democrats had a lead in the state house since reconstruction up until 2002, when partisan gerrymandering on the state level devastated us). BUT the really, really good news is the state appropriations chair, talmadge heflin, lost by less than 100 votes to democrat hubert vo. this district has a already large and growing asian population, and the vietnamese community out there is voting overwhelmingly democratic. heflin held his seat for more than 20 years and was considered one of the most powerful legislators in austin.

this from harvey kronberg's quorum report:

"
October 26, 2004      4:57 PM
HINOJOSA STAGES BIG RALLY IN EDINBURG TONIGHT
Sources say private poll showed Thamm with a one-point lead

In yesterday's Border Buzz, we reported about the potential for a shock result in the Congressional District 15 race. Today, the Buzz has heard from reliable sources how close the race is shaping up to be.

An internal poll commissioned by incumbent U.S. Rep. Rubén Hinojosa (D-Mercedes) showed Hinojosa at 39 percent and his GOP rival Michael Thamm at 40 percent, according to Border Buzz sources. The remainder were undecided.

At very short notice, Hinojosa has arranged a rally this evening at the Roadrunners' Baseball Stadium in Edinburg, perhaps another sign of nervousness about how the race is going. Norteno artist and four-time Grammy Award nominee Ramon Ayala will perform at the rally."

WTF, mates? this is really scary since quorum report is normally very accurate. it was also one of the first media sources, if not THE first, to find out and release the location of texas house democrats when they fled to oklahoma.

this has me a little worried.

what state would it come down to? ohio, where blue collar workers have shown promise in voting for kerry but might not turn out? florida, where kerry is leading in both elderly voters and younger age voters -- two groups who we can't count on? or would things come down to kerry losing traditional democratic states like wisconsin, iowa, new mexico or michigan?

okay, y'all. i'm an amateur at this, so bear with me. but here are the latest poll assessments i could find of the texas five.

1. martin frost -- trailed 50%-44% in dallas morning news poll earlier this month, but is now touting a dccc poll that shows him down one, 47%-46%.

2. charles stenholm -- a public opinion strategies (r) poll released less than a week ago showed stenholm down by 16. a poll taken by students at texas tech university showed stenholm trailing by a 2-1 margin earlier this month.

3. max sandlin -- both he and his opponent are touting their own polls released about a week ago that show they are in the lead, but both polls were within the margin of error.

4. nicholas lampson -- i haven't found any polls in this race. can someone help?

5. chet edwards -- this is probably our best chance to retain a seat out of these five (aside from sandlin, who might also hang on), as he was taken off roll call's list of the ten most vulnerable incumbents. edwards's campaign released a poll showing he had a ten point lead, though i doubt the margin is that large. again, i found it difficult to find any independent polling in this race. does anyone have any numbers?

right now, my best guess is we'll lose four seats from texas, counting the one where jim turner isn't running for re-election because of ridiculous gerrymandering in his district (and preparation for a statewide run in 2006). i think edwards is going to hang on, and we're going to keep one more seat -- either sandlin or frost, but frost is probably going to lose by five or more.

in the meantime, stenholm, the ranking democrat on the agriculture committee, looks good to run for agriculture commissioner in 2006, and hopefully he'll do so seeing as how he's 66 years old. turner might run for governor (or senator, if hutchinson steps down to run for the governor's office), and hopefully any other congressmen knocked out of their seats will run for another office as well... at least for the state senate, where republicans hold a 19-12 majority.

what do y'all think?

anyone have a list of roll call's ten most vulnerable? i know chet edwards isn't on there anymore.

any snap polls out there that asked people who won tonight's debate?

does anyone have any poll numbers regarding the redrawn districts in texas?

this from politics1:

"In Florida, former Wilton Manors Mayor Jim Stork (D) -- who climbed for a time into being a DCCC target race candidate -- quit the contest Friday against Congressman Clay Shaw (R) citing health reasons. Congressman Peter Deutsch (D), who represents an adjacent district and lost the primary for US Senate last month, is rumored to be among the possible replacement nominees for Stork that the party is discussing. A new Dem nominee is expected to be named next week."

saw this coming?